经济系统预期行为的建模与仿真研究  

Studies of Modeling and Simulation of Expectation Behavior in Economic Systems

作　　者：王正中[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京信息与控制研究所,北京100037

出　　处：《复杂系统与复杂性科学》2004年第2期20-24,共5页Complex Systems and Complexity Science

摘　　要：预决性是复杂系统动力学重要特征之一 ,复杂系统主动行为划分中 ,最基本的一类就是预期。这种预期都基于自己内心对外部世界认识的假设模型之上。介绍了经济系统主体预期行为的建模与仿真方法的研究与发展 ,包括外推非理性预期方法、理性预期方法、适应有限理性预期方法。讨论了存在的问题、应用前景和发展趋势。There is growing interest in using computer modeling and simulation to explore issues in the complex systems. Finality is a dynamic characteristic of complex system, all complex system anticipate the future,make predictions on its internal model of the world. So studies of modeling and simulation of system agents expectation behavior is very important in system study. In this paper the modeling and simulation method of expectation behavior, including: extrapolated method, rational expectation method, adaptive bounded rational method was introduced, and their application landscape as well as developing trends.

关 键 词：复杂系统动力学 预决性 经济系统 预期行为 仿真 建模 

分 类 号：N941.3[自然科学总论—系统科学]