复杂适应系统理论对控制SARS疫情的模拟分析  

Simulation and Analysis on the Control of SARS by Complexity Adaptive System Theory

作　　者：刘颖[1] 陈禹[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学经济科学实验室,北京100872

出　　处：《复杂系统与复杂性科学》2004年第2期74-79,共6页Complex Systems and Complexity Science

摘　　要：以复杂适应性系统理论为基本的指导思想 ,考察了传染病非典型性肺炎 (SARS)的爆发流行以及受到控制趋于稳定的过程。利用基于主体的计算机模拟方法 ,在SWARM平台上构建了反映这一过程的模型 ,并在此模型上根据所掌握的数据资料 ,比较成功地拟合了近似北京疫情发展的情况。以此为基础 ,分析了对SARS传播蔓延影响比较大的几种因素 ,如从发病到就医的时间间隔 ,是否采取隔离措施等 ,考察这些因素对控制SARS ,达到稳定的具体影响 ,并给出一些控制这类问题的建议。Based on the theory of Complexity Adaptive System (CAS), the process of a kind of infectious disease , SARS, from its breakout to tending stable under certain control, is investigated. Using agent-based simulation, a computer model on SWARM platform is built, and the real process of that took place in Beijing is fitted successfully according to the current data we grasped. Then several factors, such as time interval from one being infected to being treated, whether being separated or not, which have great effects on the propagation of SARS are analyzed, and whose effects on SARS are studied. Some suggestion to deal with this kind of problem is given finally.

关 键 词：复杂适应系统 SARS疫情 模拟分析 疾病控制 非典型肺炎 

分 类 号：R563.1[医药卫生—呼吸系统]