大型水利工程项目投资风险分析方法  

Risk analysis on investment of large-scale water project

作　　者：王振强[1] 钟登华[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学建工学院

出　　处：《水利学报》2004年第7期92-97,共6页Journal of Hydraulic Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(50179023);高等学校优秀青年教师教学科研资励计划(200166);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金资助课题(200300056055)。

摘　　要：本文以项目风险分析理论为基础,结合大型水利工程项目投资风险的特点,研究了基于工作分解结构(WBS)与风险分解结构(RBS)进行项目投资风险辨识的方法。提出了将投资风险模型CIM与蒙特卡罗模拟技术相结合的项目投资风险估计方法,并探讨了在风险分析基础上估计项目不可预见费的方法。以某大型水利工程为背景,基于专家经验对该项目投资进行了风险分析,取得了预期的结果。The risk identification of investment for large-scale water project is investigated according to the project Work Breakdown Structure(WBS) and Risk Breakdown Structure(RBS).The method for estimating the risk by means of integrating the Controlled Interval and Memory Model(CIM) with Monte Carlo simulation technique is established.On the basis of risk analysis the method for estimating the contingency cost is also deduced. This method is applied to analyze the risk of a large-scale water project based on experts' experiences. Good result is attained.

关 键 词：工程项目 风险分析 投资风险分析 水利工程 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济]