时间序列法在参考作物腾发量分析与模拟中的应用  

Application of Time Series Method in the Analysis and Simulation of Crop Evapotranspiration

作　　者：郭冬冬[1] 周新国[1] 孙景生[1] 卢闻航[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农田灌溉研究所,河南新乡453003

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2004年第8期4-6,10,共4页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：国家"8 63"计划资助 (项目编号 :2 0 0 2AA2Z40 31 )

摘　　要：把时间序列法应用于参考作物腾发量的模拟中 ,经研究和分析计算证明 :参考作物的腾发量由一个呈周期性变化的周期分量和一个随机变化的随机分量构成。用该方法对农田灌溉研究所商丘试验站 1977～ 1986年的参考作物腾发量进行了分析与模拟 ,在一定精度上能够准确地反映出参考作物腾发量在长时期内的变化过程 ,为灌溉工程的规划、设计和管理提供了依据。In this paper, Time Series Method is applied in the simulation of the crop evapotranspiration. Through analysis and study, it is shown that the crop evapotranspiration can be represented by the adding-up of a deterministic periodic-process component and a stochastic component. The periodic component reflects the effects of periodic crop growth processes and periodic climate processes, and the stochastic component reflects the effect of stochastic fluctuation on crop evapotranspiration such as the wind-speed and other meteorological factors. Analysis and simulation of the crop evapotranspiration at Shangqiu Experimental Station of the institute from 1977 to 1986 are carried through. The results demonstrate that this method can reflect the long-term changing processes of reference crop evapotranspiration with high precision, and can provide information for the planning, design and management of irrigation projects.

关 键 词：参考作物腾发量 周期成分 随机成分 趋势成分 

分 类 号：S161.4[农业科学—农业气象学]