西辽河实时洪水统计预报模型  

Statistical model of real-time flood prediction for the Western Liaohe River

作　　者：梁忠民[1] 董增川[1] 王建群[1] 宁方贵[2] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水资源开发教育部重点实验室,江苏南京210024 [2]水利部松辽水利委员会水文局,吉林长春130021

出　　处：《水利水电技术》2004年第8期8-10,共3页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

摘　　要：　应用相应流量法建立西辽河主要断面的洪峰预报方案,并采用线性动态系统模型理论方法建立洪水过程的实时预报方程,形成了完整的河系预报系统模型.在洪峰预报方案中,考虑引入不同预报因子以反映不同的洪水特性;在洪水过程预报方程中,联合采用AIC准则和逐步回归算法确定模型结构,结合衰减记忆最小二乘递推算法的实时校正技术进行洪水过程预报.应用结果表明,开发的预报模型适用于西辽河的实时洪水预报问题,可供防洪决策参考.Some flood peak predicting solutions developed at several major sections of the Western Liaohe River using the corresponding discharge method,is described in this article. A real-time predicting function for flood process was established,based on the model theory of linear dynamical system,to create a model of full river predicting system. Various predicting factors for different flood characteristics were incorporated into the solution of flood peak prediction. For the flood process prediction function,the AIC rule and step-by-step regression approach were used to determine the model structure,in that way making the flood process prediction by the real-time correction arithmetic of decreasing-memory least square recursion. The results obtained have shown that this model developed is suitable for the case of the western Liao river and it can be used as the tool for flood control decision-making.

关 键 词：相应流量法 线性动态系统模型 实时预报 AIC准则 逐步回归 最小二乘递推 西辽河 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]