荒漠化预警模型及其应用研究  

Desertization Pre-Warning Model and Its Application

作　　者：王忠静[1] 郑吉林[1] 王海锋[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学水利系水文水资源研究所,北京100084

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2004年第9期4-7,共4页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目 (90 30 2 0 0 7;50 0 790 0 9);欧盟科技框架亚洲生态计划 (ASI/B7 30 1 / 2 598/ 0 6 2 0 0 3/62 860 )

摘　　要：分析了土地生产潜力的影响因子及其计算方法 ,从机理上分析各因子给未来荒漠化的发展趋势可能造成的影响 ,并从土地生产潜力退化基本原理出发 ,建立了荒漠化预警模型。以疏勒河流域为背景 ,在GIS平台支持下 ,应用预警模型分析了该流域昌马灌区农业综合开发后的荒漠化趋势 ,对灌区荒漠化的发展趋势和潜在危险性进行了分析判断。In this paper, the influencing factors of land production potential and the calculation methods are analyzed. The possible impacts of the influencing factors on the development trends of desertization are studied from the mechanisms, and a desertization pre-warning model is established from the basic principles of land production potential degeneration. Against the background of Shule River, the pre-warning model is used to analyze the desertization trend after agricultural comprehensive development in the Changma Irrigation District of the river basin with the support of GIS platform. The development trend and potential risk of the irrigation district desertization are estimated and analyzed.

关 键 词：土地生产潜力 荒漠化 预警模型 疏勒河流域 

分 类 号：TP79[自动化与计算机技术—检测技术与自动化装置]