河西走廊东部沙尘暴预报方法研究  

Study on Forecasting Methods of Sand-dust storm in East of Hexi Corridor

作　　者：李岩瑛[1] 李耀辉[1] 罗晓玲 王汝忠 郭良才 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室,甘肃兰州730020 [2]甘肃省武威市气象局,甘肃武威733000 [3]甘肃省民勤县气象站,甘肃民勤733300 [4]甘肃省酒泉气象局,甘肃酒泉735000

出　　处：《中国沙漠》2004年第5期607-610,共4页Journal of Desert Research

基　　金：中国科技部社会公益研究专项项目(2000DIA10031)"西北干旱区沙尘暴预警;服务系统研究"课题资助

摘　　要：利用我国沙尘暴多发区,甘肃省河西走廊东部民勤、凉州区等五站近50a的气象资料,详细分析了河西东部沙尘暴频繁发生的气象因素,应用近20a的天气资料,结合近50a的典型个例做出沙尘暴的长期、中期、短期和短时预报预警系统。研究结果表明:长期预报取决于冬春季气温、降水量和大风日数;中期依靠使用国内外数值预报产品;短期与大气环流条件、分型指标有关;短时临近预报与高空大风形势、地面上游有无大风沙尘暴天气有关。Based on the meteorological data of the representative stations from 1951 to 2000, this paper analyzed the meteorological causes of sand-dust storm frequently occurring in east of Hexi Corridor, a region of more sand-dust storms in China. A system of forecasting and warning sand-dust storms for long-term, middle-term, short-term and even shorter than 6 hours has been put forward by using the daily weather data of the past 20 years and combing with the typical sand-dust storm examples of almost 50 years. Research results show that yearly forecast has relation to temperature, precipitation and gale days from winter to spring; monthly forecast depends on the numerical forecast products in China and overseas; daily forecast relates to weather circulation conditions, differential indexes; within 6 hours now-forecast relates to the gale circulation in upper air, and the weather of gale and sand-dust storm in upwind region.

关 键 词：沙尘暴 天气预报 河西走廊 大气环流 分型指标 

分 类 号：P445.4[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P457