基于GM(1,1)校正模型的转折性电力负荷特性预测  

Load Characteristics Forcasting with Turning Point Based on a GM(1,1) Correcting Model

作　　者：王亚雄[1] 贺文武[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南大学统计学系,湖南长沙410079

出　　处：《长沙电力学院学报（自然科学版）》2004年第3期35-37,共3页JOurnal of Changsha University of electric Power:Natural Science

摘　　要：电力负荷系统是典型的灰色系统,电力负荷特性指标的预测具有直接的经济意义.讨论了当预测对象系统存在转折性变化时,灰色预测校正模型在此方面的有效应用.该模型具有充分利用历史信息而且短期预测精度高的优点.Electric load system is a typical grey system and the forecast for the inder of electric load characteristics has a directly economical meaning.The application of the grey forecast adjustment-model to electric load is discussed when the system has the turning point. The new model has a advantage of being able to utilize the history information and to make the high precision short-term load forcasting.

关 键 词：灰色理论 转折性变化 校正模型 后验差检验 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]