城市热岛效应的灰色评价与预测  

Grey Assessment and Prediction of the Urban Heat Island Effect in City

作　　者：陈志[1] 俞炳丰[1] 胡汪洋[1] 罗昔联[1] 秦临香 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学能源与动力工程学院 [2]西安气象局西安气象台,西安710016

出　　处：《西安交通大学学报》2004年第9期985-988,共4页Journal of Xi'an Jiaotong University

摘　　要：将灰色系统理论引入到城市热岛效应的评价与预测中,运用灰色关联度分析法对影响西安城市热岛效应的因子群进行了贡献测度分析.结果表明,人为热释放是造成城市热岛效应的主要因素,风速、日照时数和相对湿度是影响城市热岛效应的主要气象因子.系统云灰色模型(SCGM)的拟合和预测结果与实际情况取得了较好的一致性,表明西安城市热岛效应具有日益加重的趋势,也体现了SCGM在多因子关联系统预测中的优越性.The grey-system theory was introduced into the assessment and prediction of the urban heat island effect of a city. The contribution level of the factors influencing the urban heat island effect of Xi'an city was analyzed by the grey relativity analysis method. The results show that the artificial heat release is the main factor for the formation of the urban heat island effect of Xi'an city, while the wind velocity, hours of sunshine, and relative humidity are the main meteorological factors affecting the urban heat island effect of Xi'an city. The prediction results of the system cloud grey model (SCGM) accord well with the actual condition of Xi'an city. It is indicated that there has been increasing trend of the urban heat island effect in Xi'an city and shows that SCGM model has great advantages for multifactor correlative system prediction.

关 键 词：热岛效应 灰色关联度 系统云灰色模型 灰色预测 

分 类 号：X828[环境科学与工程—环境工程]