多元线性回归分析在车大人沟河泥石流分区与评价中的应用  

Application of multiple linear regression analysis in assessing zonings of debris flows in Chedarengou River

作　　者：郎秋玲[1] 邱建慧[1] 李广杰[1] 宋雪妲[1] 王志胜[1] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学建设工程学院,吉林长春130026

出　　处：《世界地质》2004年第3期283-288,共6页World Geology

摘　　要：本文在概述车大人沟河流域泥石流形成的地形地貌、物源和水源等条件的基础上,采用多元线性回归分析方法,选取了物源储量、支沟完整性系数、支沟边坡坡度、支沟沟床比降、冲沟密度、侵蚀模数、不良地质现象和植被覆盖率等八个指标作为自变量,建立与泥石流活跃度间相关关系的数学表达式,计算出车大人沟河40条泥石流支沟活跃度值,从而进行分区评价。将该区泥石流活跃度划分为高、中、低易发区和不发育区,其结果与实地灾情相符,可为车大人沟河流域泥石流防治规划提供科学依据。On the basis of summarizing the conditions of topography,geomorphic,sources of matter and water,etc., the authors adopted eight index marks as variables including multiple linear regression analysis, selected reserves of the sources of matter, integrity coefficient of ditches, gradient of ditches slope,ditches density, harmful geological phenomenon, vegetation coverage ratio, and established the mathematical expression of the correlativity with degree of activity of the debris flow. The authors calculated the activity values of forty debris flows ditches of Chedarengou River and made the zoning evaluation, dividing the region into incidental area of high, middle and low and no development area. The results are consistent with the actual situation of the disaster,which lays a scientific foundation for the debris flows control planning of the watershed of Chedarengou River.

关 键 词：车大人沟河 泥石流 多元线性回归分析 分区评价 

分 类 号：O212.4[理学—概率论与数理统计] X43[理学—数学]