漳河水库入库洪水预报方案研究  

Research on Forecasting Scheme of Zhanghe Reservoir Flood

作　　者：俞淞[1] 雒文生[1] 宋星原[1] 李莉红[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2004年第3期33-36,共4页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大项目(50099622-1)

摘　　要：在分析漳河水库入库洪水误差特点的基础上,建立了入库洪水产汇流预报方案。并进一步采用自适应实时校正技术,使本次制作的漳河水库洪水预报方案平均确定性系数达到91.09%,洪峰合格率为100%,峰现时间合格率为90.91%。This paper established the yield and conflux forecasting scheme of reservoir flood based on analyzing error generation characteristics of Zhanghe reservoir flood. Then, self-adaptation technique is adopted. It makes the average deterministic coefficient of Zhanghe reservoir flood forecasting project come to 91.09%,the qualified rate of flood peak 100%,the qualified rate of time to peak 90.91%.

关 键 词：入库洪水 洪水预报 实时校正 

分 类 号：TV124[水利工程—水文学及水资源]