第一代货币危机理论模型的否定分析——基于东南亚货币危机的实证研究  

On the Objection to the First Model of Monetary Crisis——By the Experience Analysis of the Southeast Asia Monetary Crisis

作　　者：边廷亮[1] 

机构地区：[1]青岛大学经济学院,山东青岛266071

出　　处：《青岛职业技术学院学报》2004年第3期35-37,共3页Journal of Qingdao Technical College

摘　　要：人类社会进入20世纪以来,货币危机频繁爆发,根据国际货币基金组织1998年的一份研究报告表明,在53个被研究的国家中就经历了158次货币危机。货币危机因为其对危机爆发国的经济、政治以及社会生活的巨大破坏性,吸引了众多的经济学家的关注、研究。PaulKrugman提出了国际收支危机模型,1984年RobertP.Flood和PeterM·Garber对Krugman的模型加以扩展和简化,开创了第一代货币危机模型。本文通过对1997年东南亚货币危机的实证研究,证明第一代货币危机模型已经不能够合理地解释上世纪90年代发生的多次货币危机,并对货币危机领域的一些最新研究成果作了简单介绍。Monetary crisis has occurred frequently since 20th century. A research report made by International Financial Foundation in 1998 shows 158 monetary crises occurred in the 53 countries. The economy, politics and the social life were destroyed by the monetary crisis, so researchers have made a lot of studies in theory. Paul Krugman put forward the model of International Revenue and Expenditure Crisis. In 1984, Robert P. Flood and Peter M. Garber established the first model of monetary crisis after the expansion and simplification to Krugman's model. In this paper the author proves the first monetary crisis model cannot reasonably explain the Southeast Asia Monetary Crisis occurred in 1990s and gives the brief introduction of the latest research in the field of monetary crisis.

关 键 词：货币危机 第一代模型 东南亚货币危机 

分 类 号：F820.5[经济管理—财政学]