敏捷供需链系统风险分析  

Risk analysis in agile supply chain

作　　者：朱鲲[1] 柴跃廷[1] 杨家本[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学自动化系系统工程研究所,北京100084

出　　处：《计算机集成制造系统》2004年第8期945-948,954,共5页Computer Integrated Manufacturing Systems

基　　金：国家863/CIMS主题资助项目(2002AA414230)。~~

摘　　要：敏捷供需链风险分析是敏捷供需链管理的重要组成部分,是分析不确定性因素对系统影响的主要手段。从敏捷供需链的运行目标出发,将敏捷供需链的不确定性因素分为系统层、协作层和实体层三类;以系统各层评价指标变化为风险分析的最终结果,给出一种分析敏捷供需链系统不确定性因素的方法,即风险分析法,并给出了敏捷供需链各层的风险分析流程。In order to analyze the impacts of uncertainty factors on agile supply chain (ASC), the risk analysis model of ASC based on risk factors was built. The possibility of reconfiguring ASC system and its time response were summarized, then the uncertainty factors were classified into system level, cooperation level and entity level for ease of analysis. To obtain the change of evaluation index of each level as risk analysis result, a new qualitative as well as quantitative risk analysis method aiming at the risk of ASC were provided. By the quantitative model and the quantitative method developed, numerical example shows that the risk analysis results are efficient for decision-making, and the proposed model and method are helpful to the risk management in ASC system.

关 键 词：敏捷供需链 风险分析 不确定性 

分 类 号：N94[自然科学总论—系统科学] TP391[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]