岩爆预测的概率模型  

PROBABILITY MODEL FOR ROCKBURST PREDICTION

作　　者：梁志勇 刘汉超[2] 石豫川[2] 单治钢[3] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁省交通堪测设计院,沈阳110000 [2]成都理工大学环境与土木工程学院,成都610059 [3]华东勘测设计研究院,杭州310014

出　　处：《岩石力学与工程学报》2004年第18期3098-3101,共4页Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering

基　　金：四川省杰出青年学科带头人培养计划(03ZQ026-045)资助课题。

摘　　要：基于岩石单轴抗压破坏特征和强度概率分布规律,首次引入岩爆烈度是岩石概率破坏表现的观点,建立岩爆烈度与岩石单轴压缩强度概率密度函数的对应关系,进而确定不同应力强度比条件下各级岩爆烈度发生概率的计算式。该预测模型能够反映洞室岩爆发生的基本规律,并可以预测不同应力条件下的各级岩爆的发生概率。工程实例分析表明该预测模型是有效的。Based on the failure phenomena and the distribution feature of strength probability from the uniaxial compressive strength test of rock, a new point of view is introduced that rockburst intensity reflects the probability of rock failure. The relation is established between rockburst intensity and probability distribution of uniaxial compressive strength of rock, and the formulas about the probability of different rockburst intensities under different stresses are obtained. This prediction model of rockburst intensity reflects the principal regularity of rockburst in tunnel and it can be applied to predict the probability of rockburst intensity of all levels under different stresses. A practical example shows that this prediction model is available.

关 键 词：岩石力学 岩爆预测 概率模型 单轴压缩强度 概率密度函数 

分 类 号：TD313[矿业工程—矿井建设]