上海市闸北区大气污染与死亡率的病例交叉研究  

Association of Air Pollution With Daily Mortality in Zhabei District of Shanghai: a Case,Crossover Analysis

作　　者：贾健[1] 阚海东[1] 陈秉衡[1] 徐伟[2] 夏德祥[3] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学公共卫生学院,上海200032 [2]上海市闸北区疾病预防控制中心,上海200072 [3]上海市环境监测中心,上海200030

出　　处：《环境与健康杂志》2004年第5期279-282,共4页Journal of Environment and Health

摘　　要：目的探索上海市闸北区大气污染与居民死亡率之间的联系。方法应用病例交叉设计(case-crossover)和STATA6.0中的条件Logistic回归模型对2000年6月1日-2002年12月31日期间上海市闸北区大气污染与居民死亡率之间的联系进行分析。结果在调整气象因素并采用1∶4双向对称性对照模型中,PM10、SO2及NO248h平均浓度每增加10μg/m3与总死亡率(损伤中毒除外)的OR分别为1.007(95%可信区间1.003～1.011),1.011(95%可信区间1.001～1.021),1.010(95%可信区间1.000～1.020),其中PM10与死亡率的联系在敏感度分析中不随模型参数的改变而不同。PM10与循环系统疾病死亡率有关,NO2与呼吸系统疾病死亡率有关。结论上海市闸北区大气污染物暴露对居民死亡率有急性效应。Objective To assess the association of air pollution with daily mortality among residents of Zhabei district in Shanghai. Methods Case,crossover analysis and conditional Logistic regression model were used to analyze the association of air pollution with daily mortality of residents in Zhabei district of Shanghai from June 2000 to December 2002. Results Using a symmetric bi,directional control sampling approach, the results obtained from a conditional logistic regression model with four reference periods after controlling for weather conditions showed that the OR of non,accidental mortality associated with each 10 μg/m3 increment of PM10, SO2 and NO2 over a 48,hr moving average were 1.007(95%CI 1.003-1.011),1.011(95%CI 1.001-1.021),1.010(95%CI 1.000-1.020)respectively. Similar associations were observed between mortality of cardiovascular diseases and PM10, mortality of respiratory diseases and NO2. Also, PM10 was associated with mortality in a sensitivity analysis. Conclusion The acute effect of air pollution on mortality of the general population was established in Zhabei district of Shanghai.

关 键 词：大气污染 病例交叉研究 可吸入颗粒物 二氧化硫 二氧化氮 

分 类 号：R122.7[医药卫生—环境卫生学]