博斯腾湖向塔里木河输水风险分析方法  

Study on the Risk of Water Diversion from Bosten Lake to Tarim River

作　　者：左其亭[1] 李静[2] 马军霞[1] 吴泽宁[1] 王薇 

机构地区：[1]郑州大学环境与水利学院 [2]新疆遥感中心,乌鲁木齐830011 [3]新疆水利厅工矿石油供水管理总站,乌鲁木齐830000

出　　处：《干旱区地理》2004年第3期361-366,共6页Arid Land Geography

基　　金：水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室开放研究基金 ( 2 0 0 3B0 0 7);河南省杰出青年科学基金 ( 2 0 0 4);河南省自然科学基金 ( 3 110 2 160 0 )资助

摘　　要：为了拯救塔里木河下游生态环境 ,塔里木河流域管理局根据博斯腾湖从 1999年到 2 0 0 3年处于丰水期 ,湖泊处于高水位的有利时机 ,从 2 0 0 0年 5月到 2 0 0 3年 6月实施 5次向塔里木河下游生态应急输水 ,结束塔里木河下游 30 0多km河道近 30年的断流历史。现在的问题是“博斯腾湖向塔里木河生态输水能否持续 ?” ,“保证可持续输水的风险有多大 ?”本文以解决此问题为实例 ,介绍一般水库调节计算和水库特征水位确定方法 ;主要探讨水库 (湖泊 )向下游输水可持续性风险分析问题 ,提出的方法称为“水库输水可持续性风险计算时历试算法” ,简称为“试算法”(T&E方法 ) ;并将此方法应用于实例中 ,计算博斯腾湖向塔里木河下游输水的可持续风险。Bosten Lake is the biggest inland fresh water lake (with an area about 980 km2 and volume capacity about 8 billion m3), and Tarim River is the longest inland river (with basin area about 43.55×104 km2 and about 2 421km in length) in China. Water resource of Bosten lake and Tarim River is quite valuable in the arid region of Xingjiang, China. The main inflow of the Bosten Lake is from the Kaidu river that is the second largest river in southern Xinjiang with the total length 560 km. The water resources of Kaidu river comes from snowmelt runoff supply in the Tianshan mountain. The Kongque river starts from the Bosten Lake, drained into the Tarim River. So, the Kaidu- Kongque river input and output from the Bosten Lake, is a headstream of Tarim River. But, because of increased water use, almost no water from the Kongque river drain into the Tarim River. Eco-environment of lower reaches of the Tarim River has been in very severe danger because of water resources shortage. In order to resume and protect eco-environment of lower reaches of the Tarim River, Chinese government seized the opportunity that the Bosten Lake is in high-water period from 1999 to 2003 and the water level of Bosten Lake is high too, and transfused water 5 times from Bosten Lake to Tarim River. The history that about 300 km length of river in lower reaches of the Tarim River is dry-up near 30 years is over. However, water diversion from Bosten Lake to Tarim River can be sustainable? In order to answer this problem, the general methods of reservoir regulating calculation and reservoir characteristic water level selection are introduced at first. Then, the risk analysis of water diversion from reservoir (or lake) to lower reaches of river is amply discussed, and a new calculation method that is called as time sequence trial-and-error method (for short, T&E method) is put forward in the paper. In the end, the T&E method is used to estimate the risk of water diversion from Bosten Lake to Tarim River.

关 键 词：博斯腾湖 塔里木河 风险分析 生态输水 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]