我国储蓄-投资转化率的经验性研究:1978～2002  

Experimental Analysis of Saving-Investment Transition Rate of China from 1978 to 2002

作　　者：包群[1] 阳小晓[1] 赖明勇[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南大学经济与贸易学院

出　　处：《统计研究》2004年第9期12-18,共7页Statistical Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金 ( 70 2 73 0 10 );教育部人文社会科学研究项目 ( 0 2JA790 0 2 3 )的资助

摘　　要：The long-term equilibrium relationship and short-term dynamics between investments and savings are both investigated in this paper. The result of co-integration test reveals that although there exists a positive long-term relationship between private saving, public saving and investment, the low correlation between private saving and investment is the key reason that restraints the effective formation of investment. A further impulse response function analysis based on the VAR system is used to study the dynamic relation between saving and investment, which demonstrates that an obvious lagged effect exists for the transformation of private to investment. Finally, it’s concluded that a competitive and multi-channels mechanism of capital formation is crucial to transform savings to investments.The long-term equilibrium relationship and short-term dynamics between investments and savings are both investigated in this paper. The result of co-integration test reveals that although there exists a positive long-term relationship between private saving, public saving and investment, the low correlation between private saving and investment is the key reason that restraints the effective formation of investment. A further impulse response function analysis based on the VAR system is used to study the dynamic relation between saving and investment, which demonstrates that an obvious lagged effect exists for the transformation of private to investment. Finally, it's concluded that a competitive and multi-channels mechanism of capital formation is crucial to transform savings to investments.

关 键 词：储蓄-投资转化率 1978-2002年 中国 经济增长 居民储蓄 政府储蓄 脉冲响应分析 

分 类 号：F832.22[经济管理—金融学] F832.48