水库水情的长期预报方法研究  

Long-term prediction method for reservoirs water regime

作　　者：郑金陵[1] 林镜榆[2] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学计算机及信息工程学院,江苏南京210098 [2]河海大学水资源环境学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水科学进展》2004年第5期665-669,共5页Advances in Water Science

摘　　要：介绍了建立水库水情长期数值预报的思路和做法。本法的特点是在逐步回归方法的基础上,同时对所选取的因子进行优化筛选,因而使预报的结果与实测值最为接近。该法用于我国东北地区松花江上游小山、两江和松山等水库的年、月来水量长期预报,结果表明,其预报合格率可达80%以上。另外,对6～9月总流量的预报,根据我国东北地区气候的特点,这一阶段的降水量变异很大,用本法预报会使误差较大,但是年平均流量与这一时段的总流量相关较好,于是提出了另外的预报方法。总之这一方法是较为快捷而实用的水库水情长期预报方法。This paper introduces in detail the thought and way of long term forecast of water regime of reservoirs, based on the method of step regression and optimization of predictors, to reduce the error of prediction to the minimum. The way was effective for long term forecast of water regime of several reservoirs in the past. Forecast for the three hydraulic plants in the North East region of China is illustrated in detail and flow prediction for the June-September flood period in this region is particularly suggested in this paper. We think that this method is practical for long term prediction for water regime of reservoir.

关 键 词：水文长期预报 水库水情预报 统计预报 

分 类 号：P338.2[天文地球—水文科学]