人口转变的储蓄效应和增长效应——论中国增长可持续性的人口因素  

Saving and Growth Effects of Demographic Transition:the Population Factor in the Sustainability of China's Economic Growth

作　　者：王德文[1] 蔡昉[1] 张学辉[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所 [2]中国社会科学院研究生院

出　　处：《人口研究》2004年第5期2-11,共10页Population Research

摘　　要：人口转变是挑战中国经济持续增长的一个重要因素。在这个过程中 ,个人的生命周期和代际更替之间的相互叠加 ,通过劳动供给、储蓄和科技进步等渠道对长期经济增长施加影响。本文分析表明 ,人口转变使得中国从 2 0世纪 60年代中期开始享受人口红利 ,并一直持续到 2 0 1 5年前后。为了迎接人口老龄化冲击 ,中国需要通过扩大就业、加快人力资本积累和建立适合于中国国情的可持续的养老保障模式三条途径来充分挖掘未来潜在的人口红利 。Demographic transition is one of the vital factors challenging the sustainable economic growth in China.The interaction of individual life cycle and inter-generation overlapping in the process of demographic transition has impacted on the long-run economic growth through channels of labor supply,saving and technological progress.The empirical study in this paper points out that China's economy has enjoyed population dividend since the mid-1960s,and will benefit from it till about the year 2015.The decline in total dependency ratio contributed to the increase of saving rate by 5 percent or so,and to the increase of economic growth by more than one-fourth in the reform era.If the population dividend in the future 15 years is also included,the contribution of demographic transition will go up to about one-third of China's economic growth.In order to smooth the population aging shocks,it is very urgent for China to take measures such as scaling up employment,speeding up the accumulation of human capital,and setting up a sustainable pension system consistent with China's basic situation,so as to make full use of the future potential population dividend to promote its economic growth.

关 键 词：中国 人口转变 储蓄效应 增长效应 经济增长 全面建设小康社会 人口结构 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学]