2003年淮河流域洪涝暴雨的气象水文特征分析  

Contrast Analysis of Meteorological and Hydrological Features of Extremely Heavy Rainfall Causing Severe Floods in Huaihe River Valley

作　　者：毕宝贵[1] 矫梅燕 李泽椿 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学大气科学系,江苏南京210044 [2]国家气象中心,北京100081

出　　处：《南京气象学院学报》2004年第5期577-586,共10页Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展规划资助项目(G1999045700)

摘　　要：用常规的气象水文资料和常规分析方法,对2003年、1991年和1954年3a气象水文特征分析发现:(1)2003年淮河流域的降水比常年明显偏多,比1991年多,但比1954年少,是自建国以来仅次于1954年的第2个多雨年份;1954年洪水最大,2003年次之,1991年最弱。但3a的共同特点是洪峰高、流量大、持续时间长、灾害损失严重;3a的不同之处是降水集中时段和强度各不相同,洪水的早晚也不同,1991年最早,2003年和1954年较迟。(2)环流形势的共同特点是:副高脊线相对常年位置均偏南,亚洲西风带阻塞高压活动十分频繁,120°E以东越赤道气流较常年偏弱、赤道西风明显偏弱,这样就造成赤道辐合带不活跃,低空急流都较常年偏强。环流不同之处:1991、1954年东阻活动最昌盛,而2003年以中阻塞形势为主;1991年副高与2003年相似,但强度和范围不及2003年,1954年是3a之中副高脊线最偏南、副高范围最小、强度最弱的1a;由于高、低空配置、副高位置的不同,低空急流的强度并非与越赤道气流强度呈正相关关系。By use of regular data and methods,meteorological and hydrological features of 2003,1991 and 1954 are analyzed.Results show that the precipitation in the Huaihe river basin during the summer of 2003 much more than the normal,more than 1991,but less than 1954,and therefore was the second biggest rainy year only next to 1954 since 1949;the flood in 1954 was the biggest,one in 2003 the next and one in 1991 was the smallest among the three years.Higher flood peaks,larger fluxes,longer durations and severe disastrous losses are the common features of them,while differences exist in aspects of the intensity and time of precipitation and floods with the eariest in 1991 and the later in 1954 and 2003.As far as the general circulation situation be concerned,the common features for the three years are:the southward shifted subtropical high,and frequent activities of blocking high in the Asian westerlies;the weaker cross equatorial flow/equatorial west wind,thus the weaker ITCZ(east of 120°E);and the stronger low-level jet.The different features are that the east blocking high dominated in 1954 and 1991,while the middle blocking high was active in 2003;the subtropical high in 1991 was similar with one in 2003 but with a smaller area and weaker intensity,and among the three the subtropical high in 1954 was the weakest,smallest,and southest.

关 键 词：淮河流域 暴雨 大尺度环流特征 水情特征 洪峰 

分 类 号：P333.2[天文地球—水文科学]