工程项目财务风险分析方法及在大型水电站项目中的应用研究  

Application study of project financial risk analysis of giant hydropower project

作　　者：王振强[1] 钟登华[2] 

机构地区：[1]天津理工大学经济与管理学院,天津300191 [2]天津大学建工学院,天津300072

出　　处：《水力发电学报》2004年第5期10-14,共5页Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering

摘　　要：随着国家水利水电项目融资渠道的多样化 ,以及大型水电项目投资巨大和建设周期长等特点 ,使项目的投资带有不确定性 ,同时电量、电价以及运营成本的不确定性 ,这些将对项目未来的财务可行性产生巨大影响 ,在财务评价中进行财务风险分析就显得非常重要。本文提出了基于概率论与模拟技术相结合的工程项目财务风险分析方法。研究了大型水电项目财务评价中风险变量之间的相互影响关系 ,运用模拟技术 ,提出了将项目投资风险与财务风险结合的风险分析方法 ,为快速地进行项目科学决策提供可靠依据 。With the diversification of finance, and the characters of huge investment and long construction time of hydropower project, the construction costs of project will be uncertain. At the same time, the uncertainty of power output, electrovalence, operation and maintenance costs will greatly influence the financial effectiveness of the project, so the financial risk analysis is very important to the success of the project in financial evaluation stage. The project financial risk analysis method based on probability theory and Monte Carlo simulation technique is presental in this paper. The relationship between the risk variables in the financial evaluation is studied for the hydropower projects. The risk analysis method of combining the project cost risk and financial risk, fast and reliable decision-making is applied on the hydropower project.

关 键 词：水利水电工程 风险分析 模拟技术 财务风险 

分 类 号：TB2[一般工业技术—工程设计测绘]