基于区域经济层次交互分析的流域需水预测方法  

Water demand prediction method based on mutual analysisamong regional economic hierarchies

作　　者：王忠静[1] 熊雁晖[1] 赵建世 

机构地区：[1]清华大学土木水利学院水文及水资源研究所,北京100084

出　　处：《水力发电学报》2004年第5期78-82,共5页Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目 ( 5 0 0 790 0 9) ( 90 30 2 0 0 7);国家"十五"重大科技攻关项目 ( 2 0 0 1BA61 0A 0 3 0 1 )

摘　　要：根据水资源规划和需水预测分析的结构特点 ,在宏观经济水资源多目标模型基础上 ,采用计量经济学实证分析原理 ,建立了流域及局部地区的经济与需水层次交互分析复合模型。应用建立的模型 ,针对海河流域因社会经济高速发展导致可利用水资源短缺、地下水严重超采和生态环境恶化等具体情况 ,进行了未来水平年的供需水情况分析 。According to the characters of structure in water resources planning and water demand prediction,baced on the multi-objective and multi-hierarchy macroeconomic model,the demonstration analysis theory of metric-economy is introduced to build a basin economy and water demand prediction model founded on interaction among regional economic hierarchies.The combined model is applied to the Haihe Basin,where the water resources is urgently inadequate,the groundwater is over exploited and the ecological environment is exacerbated, the relation of water demand and supply is analyzed in the future years, which provides a rational referenced objective of economic and society development planning for the basin.

关 键 词：水资源 宏观经济水资源模型 计量经济实证分析模型 需水预测 

分 类 号：TV212.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]