基于风险的油气管道最优完整性维护决策(一)  

DECISION BASED ON RISK FOR OPTIMUM IN TEGRITY MAINTENANCE OF OIL/GAS PIPE LINE

作　　者：张鹏[1] 陈利琼[1] 侯向秦[1] 施林圆[2] 

机构地区：[1]西南石油学院田分公司输气管理处 [2]中国石油西南油气田分公司输气管理处

出　　处：《天然气工业》2004年第9期159-162,共4页Natural Gas Industry

基　　金：石油科技中青年创新基金;油气藏地质及开发工程国家重点实验室开放基金 (PLN0 113);四川省应用基础研究专项基金 (0 1GY0 5 1- 4 0 )资助项目

摘　　要：对管线进行完整性维护是目前管道公司的一项重要任务。文章分析了油气管线风险评价技术的现状 ,指出目前研究工作的范围和重点 ;介绍了一种处理管线维护资源最优分配的技术———基于风险的管线完整性维护决策优化技术。该方法分为系统排序和决策分析两过程 :系统排序按照完整性维修等级或单位风险降低费用对不同管段进行排序 ;决策分析评估可供选择的维修方式 ,确定每一个目标管段的最优维修方式。建立了管道完整性维护决策的数学模型 ,模型包括五要素 :状态集、决策集、概率分布、后果函数、决策准则与最优值。着重介绍了完整性维护决策优化的效用函数方法 ,包括效用函数的定义、分析原理、多准则效用函数的评估方法、基于效用函数的决策树、效用函数的构成等。还介绍了有限费用的决策优化方法。最后指出定量风险评价以及该技术中存在的难点 ,并提出建议。The article analyzes the actualities of the risk evaluation technology for oil/gas pipelines, proposes the range and emphasis of nowadays research, and introduces a technique (the decision-making optimization technique based on risk for pipeline integrity maintenance) for optimized distribution of maintenance resource. The technique consists of two stages, i. e. system prioritizing and decision-making analysis. In the stage of system prioritizing, different pipe sections are prioritized in term of the level of pipe integrity maintenance or of the cost of the unit risk reduce. In the stage of decision-making analysis, the options of maintenance measures are evaluated to make sure an optimal maintenance measure for each target section. The mathematical model of pipeline integrity maintenance is established. It covers five elements. They are state aggregate, decision-making aggregate, probability distribution, consequence function, decision-making criterion and optimum. The utility function method of decision-making optimization for oil/gas pipeline integrity maintenance is mainly introduced, including the definition and analysis principle of the utility function, the evaluation method of multi-criterion utility function, the decision-making tree based on the utility function, and the composition of the utility function, etc. Also, the decision-making optimization method is introduced for limited money. In the end, the quantitative risk evaluation is described. Its difficulties are pointed out. And the related suggestions are proposed.

关 键 词：效用函数 风险 决策优化 费用 技术 决策准则 公司 完整性维护 油气管道 油气管线 

分 类 号：TE973[石油与天然气工程—石油机械设备] TE871