应用乘数法估计深圳市性工作者和吸毒人群规模  

Multiplier method to estimate the number of commercial sex workers and drug users in Shenzhen

作　　者：冯铁建[1] 吕繁[2] 陈琳[1] 刘小立[1] 石向东[1] 钟璋平[3] 邱定海[3] 李杰[4] 王晓辉[1] 

机构地区：[1]深圳市疾病预防控制中心,广东深圳518020 [2]中国疾病预防控制中心性病艾滋病预防控制中心,北京100050 [3]深圳市宝安区疾病预防控制中心,广东深圳518020 [4]深圳市罗湖区疾病预防控制中心,广东深圳518020

出　　处：《中国艾滋病性病》2004年第4期275-277,共3页Chinese Journal of Aids & STD

基　　金：卫生部科技司 2 0 0 2年度"艾滋病防治应用性研究" 项目;(编号 :WA2 0 0 2 - 0 3 - 0 1 )

摘　　要：目的　调查估计深圳市性工作者和吸毒人群规模 ,分析影响评估结果的因素 ,为制定有针对性的艾滋病(AIDS)防治策略提供科学依据。方法　在 6个区中 ,分别应用乘数法对各区的性工作者和吸毒人群规模进行调查估计 ,将吸毒人群规模估计数与专家估计数和普查人数进行比较。结果　深圳市约有 6 370 6名性工作者和 2 174 1名吸毒者 ,两类高危人群中 ,特区内分别占 2 8 8%和 5 2 5 %。应用专家估计法和普查法获得的吸毒人群规模分别为 2 0 95 0名和 175 81名 ,与乘数法评估结果比较 ,分别相差 3 6 %和 19 1%。结论　乘数法是AIDS流行相关高危人群规模估计的一种较实用的方法 ,具有方法简便、结果可靠、费用较低、省时省力等优点。但应注意调查时间、指定机构在辖区的代表性、目标人群的识别及调查员培训和调查方法的标准化等因素 ,以减少评估结果的偏差。Objective To investigate and estimate the number of commercial sex workers(CSWs) and drug users(DUs) in Shenzhen,and analyze the related factors influencing estimation so as to provide scientific data for the development of HIV/AIDS prevention and control strategy. Methods The multiplier method was adopted to estimate the size of CSWs and DUs in 6 districts of Shenzhen. The DUs size estimated by multiplier method was compared with that by expert estimation method and general investigation method. Rresults There are about 63706 CSWs and 22888 DUs by multiplier method in Shenzhen.Among them,28.8% and 49.9% are living in Shenzhen Special Economy Zone,respectively. The divergence of the DUs size from multiplier method,compared to 20 950 and 17 581 DUs estimated by expert estimation method and general investigation method,were 8.5% and 23.2%,respectively. Conclusion This research indicates that multiplier method is an applicable and better tool,which is simple,convenient,reliable,cost-effective and labor saving in estimating the size of high risk population related to HIV/AIDS infection. In order to decrease the bias of estimation result,we should pay attention to the influence of some factors on the result such as investigating time,representativeness of designated agencies,identification of target population and the standardization of investigation methods.

关 键 词：吸毒人群 乘数法 调查 高危人群 普查 AIDS 艾滋病 目标人群 吸毒者 因素 

分 类 号：R512[医药卫生—内科学] R181.2[医药卫生—临床医学]