北京市水资源承载力的现状及驱动力分析  

A Study on Trend and Driving Forces of Carrying Capacity Change for Water Resources in Beijing

作　　者：孟凡德[1] 王晓燕[1] 

机构地区：[1]首都师范大学资源环境与旅游学院,北京100037

出　　处：《首都师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2004年第3期100-105,共6页Journal of Capital Normal University：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：北京市科技新星计划 (资助编号 :95 3 810 3 0 0 );国家重点基础研究发展规划 ( 2 0 0 2CB412 3 0 4)资助项目

摘　　要：本文阐述了水资源承载力的概念、特性及影响因素 ,根据北京市各县区的统计资料 ,分析了北京市自上个世纪80年代以来水资源承载力变化的总体趋势和驱动因子 .结果表明 :人口和GDP是影响北京市水资源承载力变化的主要驱动因素 .2 0 0 1年北京市人口总量已达 1 36 7 78万人 ,为水资源最大承载人口的 5 81倍 .再加上工农业的发展 ,已经大大超过了北京市水资源的承载力 ,使得北京成为世界上严重缺水的大城市之一 .根据人口的GDP增长率 ,通过多元线性回归模型 ,预测出了 2 0 1 0年和 2 0 1 5年北京市水资源的供需状况 .并提出要实现水资源的供需平衡 。Firstly, the characteristics and influence factor of water resources bearing capacity are analyzed in this paper. Then, according to the statistical data of city and county in Beijing area, the trend of water resources carrying capacity and its driving forces in Beijing during the last 22 years are discussed. The results showed that population, GDP and society total production valual are main driving forces, which play an important role in the changing of water resources bearing capacity. By using regressive equation, along with population growth and economic development,the prediction of water resources in Beijing is done for 2010 and 20l5.The analytical results and conclusion of this paper will provide scientific basis for sustainable development of water resources in Beijing.

关 键 词：驱动力分析 北京 GDP增长率 供需状况 人口 驱动因子 驱动因素 水资源承载力 缺水 供需平衡 

分 类 号：N941[自然科学总论—系统科学] TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]