广西6、7月份若干日内最大日降水量的概率分布  

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION OF THE MAXIMUM AMOUNT OF DAILY PRECIPITATION IN CERTAIN DAYS IN JUNE AND JULY FOR GUANGXI

作　　者：吴洪宝[1] 王盘兴[1] 林开平[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学大气科学系,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《热带气象学报》2004年第5期586-592,共7页Journal of Tropical Meteorology

基　　金：科技部社会公益专项资金项目(37020)"珠江流域广西境内流域雨量预报与汛期洪涝检测业务体系研究"课题资助

摘　　要：对广西16站用6、7月逐日降水量资料估计了日降水量的条件概率密度函数,并递推得1-20天内最大日降水量的概率分布。主要结果是:Γ分布能较准确地逼近前一日有雨和无雨两种条件下日降水量的样本频率分布;大多数站在10日内最大日降水量在20-30毫米的概率最大,约0.2,20日内最大日降水量在30-50毫米的概率最大;北海和钦州10、20日内最大日降水量达100毫米以上的概率明显大于其它站。The conditional probability density functions of daily precipitation in 16 stations of Guangxi in Summer are estimated and then the probability distributions of maximum amount of daily precipitation in 1-20 days are recurrented by using daily amount of precipitation data set. The results show that the Gamma distribution can be accurately approximated to sample frequency distribution of daily precipitation given wet preceding day or dry preceding day. For the most stations the probabilities of maximum amount of daily precipitation in 10 days achieve their largest value (about 0.2) at 20-30 mm, while in 20 days at 30-50 mm. The probabilities at which the maximum amount of daily precipitation in 10, 20 days in the stations of Beihai and Qinzhou are more than 100 mm are evidently more than those in other stations.

关 键 词：最大日降水量 概率分布 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]