供应链环境下合作预测效果的分析  

Analysis on the Effect of Collaborative Forecasting in Supply Chain

作　　者：汪传旭[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海海事大学经济管理学院,上海200135

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2004年第5期63-68,共6页Chinese Journal of Management Science

基　　金：上海市高等学校科技基金资助项目(02JK12);上海市社科基金资助项目(01BJB009)

摘　　要：本文定量分析了供应链中合作预测对需求长鞭效应的减小作用,在多节点企业所组成的供应链中,合作预测对订单量的波动和需求预测误差的波动起到积极的抑制作用。本文通过理论研究和数值分析的结果表明,供应链信息共享和合作预测能够控制需求流动现象。This paper makes a quantitative analysis on the alleviation of bullwhip effect in supply chain through collaborative forecasting.It shows the positive impact that collaborative forecasting utilized by members of a mul-ti-stage supply chain havs on order release quantity variation and demand forecast error variation.Based on the-oretical study and numerical analysis,this paper demonstrates that such fluctuations can be controlled through ef-fective information sharing and collaborative forecasting within the supply chain.

关 键 词：供应链 长鞭效应 滑动平均 预测误差 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]