基于多目标规划的中国可持续发展模式优化研究  

Optimization Research on the Development Mode of Chinese Sustainable Development Based on the Multi-Objective Programming

作　　者：陈长杰[1] 马晓微[2] 魏一鸣[2] 傅小锋[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院生物物理研究所,北京100101 [2]中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所,北京100080 [3]中国21世纪议程管理中心,北京100089

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2004年第5期91-96,共6页Chinese Journal of Management Science

基　　金："十五"国家科技攻关计划重点项目(2001-BA608B-15)

摘　　要：本文以人口(Population)、资源(Resource)、经济(Economy)、环境(Environment)和科技(Science＆Technolo gy)为核心,构造了PREEST系统模型。以PREEST系统为对象,运用主成分分析法对1987-2001年度中国的可持续发展水平进行了综合评价;借助多目标规划理论,构建了中国可持续发展多目标集成模型,并以"十五"计划纲要为基准,开展了中国可持续发展规划研究的实证分析。在此基础上,通过对"十五"期间中国可持续发展传统模式和规划模式的对比分析,就中国人口、资源、经济、环境和科技等领域的协调发展提出了政策建议。The PREEST system model has been put forward based on the population,resource,economy,envi-ronment and science&technology.Then,the integrated evaluation of the sustainable development level in China has been completed during1987～2001by dint of the principal component analysis.At the same time,a multi-objective integrated model for the sustainable development of China has been formulated according to the theory of the multi-objective programming,and a demonstration analysis about the programming research of Chinese sustainable development is introduced with the goal of Chinese10 th Five-Year Plan.Finally,some advice has been given based on the contrast analysis between the traditional development mode and the programming devel-opment mode.

关 键 词：可持续发展 PREEST系统 综合评价 多目标规划 发展模式 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]