陕西黄土高原水土流失区生态退耕对粮食生产的可能影响  

Ecological restoration and its effects on grain production in the corrasive region of loess plateau in Shanxi

作　　者：刘贤赵[1] 衣华鹏 谭春英 杜国云 宿庆 

机构地区：[1]烟台师范大学地理与资源管理学院 [2]烟台师范大学图书馆,山东烟台264025

出　　处：《农业系统科学与综合研究》2004年第4期246-250,共5页System Sciemces and Comprehensive Studies In Agriculture

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40101005);山东省自然科学基金项目(Q002E03);山东省教委项目(J02L01)

摘　　要：通过对陕西黄土高原水土流失区生态退耕对粮食生产产生的可能影响分析表明:生态退耕将减少粮食产量近30×104t,按1999年该区农业总人口665×104计算,人均减少粮食45kg。从生态退耕的正面影响看,退耕节省下来的生产要素的转移可以带来未退耕耕地粮食产量的增加;同时技术进步、中低产田改造等农业基础设施的建设和生态环境的改善,势必也对粮食生产产生促进和推动作用。粮食需求预测显示,2010年陕西黄土高原水土流失区粮食总量达693 92×104t,在人均400kg、420kg、450kg水平下粮食需求分别为475 54×104t、499 32×104t和535 01×104t,粮食总需求均小于总供给。这意味着生态退耕不会对该区的粮食安全构成较大威胁,但也决不能对粮食安全放松警惕。图1,表3,参9。The effect of ecological restoration on grain production in the corrasive region of loess plateau in Shanxi is analyzed.The 30×10~4t grain production will be decreased in the corrasive region because of the conversion from sloping plow land to forest or grassland and the 45kg grain per person will be minified according to the total agricultural population of 665×10~4 in 1999.Simultaneously,the transfer of water,fertilizer,pesticide,seeds and labor force to reserved cultivated farmland can bring more increase in grain yield.Also,the advancement in agricultural science and technology and the agricultural infrastructure construction such as reconstruct of medium or low yield farmland can promote grain production by improving the ecological environment and reduce the risk of natural disasters.The prediction shows that the total grain yield in the corrasive region in 2010 will reach 693.92×10~4t.The demand of grain based on the three levels (400kg,420kg or 450kg/person) is respectively 475.54×10~4t,499.32×10~4t and 535.01×10~4t,which are all less than the supply of grain.This suggests that the ecological restoration will not intimidate the grain security in the corrasive region of loess plateau in Shanxi,but the guard of grain security can't relax.

关 键 词：陕西黄土高原 水土流失区 生态退耕 粮食生产 

分 类 号：S181[农业科学—农业基础科学]