瑞典水文变化-气候变化影响模拟  

Hydrological Change-Climate Change Impact Simulations for Sweden

作　　者：Johan Andréasson StenBergstrm Bengt Carlsson L.Phil Graham Gran Lindstrm 王纲胜 

机构地区：[1]瑞典气象水文研究所(SMHI) [2]瑞典气象水文研究所(SMHI)罗斯比中心

出　　处：《AMBIO－人类环境杂志》2004年第4期207-213,共7页

摘　　要：温室效应加剧导致的气候变化将会引起水文系统的变化。随着气候要素的变化,水文变化将会在全球呈现出区域差异性。因此,有必要开展局地和区域尺度上的水文变化影响研究,评价不同区域将会受到怎样的影响。本研究旨在对广泛的瑞典流域上气候变化的水文影响(响应)进行评估。我们采用不同的方法,将气候模型中产生的气候变化信号转换输入到水文模型中。利用瑞典区域气候模拟计划(SWECLIM)生成的区域气候情景,我们进行了几次水文模型模拟研究。得出的基本结论是:根据流域的地理位置处于瑞典北部或南部,气候变化对河道水流的分区影响是显著不同的。此外,预测的水文变化不仅与用于确定区域气候模型边界条件的全球气候模型的选择有关,而且与人为气体排放情景的选取有关。Climate change resulting from the enhanced greenhouse effect is expected to give rise to changes in hydrological systems.This hydrological change,as with the change in climate variables,will vary regionally around the globe.Impact studies at local and regional scales are needed to assess how different regions will be affected.This study focuses on assessment of hydrological impacts of climate change over a wide range of Swedish basins.Different methods of transferring the signal of climate change from climate models to hydrological models were used. Several hydrological model simulations using regional climate model scenarios from Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme (SWECLIM) are presented. A principal conclusion is that subregional impacts to river flow vary considerably according to whether a basin is in northern or southern Sweden.Furthermore, projected hydrological change is just as dependent on the choice of the global climate model used for regional climate model boundary conditions as the choice of anthropogenic emissions scenario.

关 键 词：气候变化 水文模型 区域气候模拟 全球气候 气候模型 气候要素 水文影响 瑞典 区域差异 计划 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P338[天文地球—水文科学]