基于蒙特卡罗仿真的风力发电系统可靠性评价  

Reliability assessment of wind power generation system based on Monte-Carlo simulation

作　　者：吴义纯[1] 丁明[1] 

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学电气与自动化工程学院

出　　处：《电力自动化设备》2004年第12期70-73,共4页Electric Power Automation Equipment

基　　金：教育部科学技术研究重点项目资助(03099)

摘　　要：风能存在随机性和波动性的缺点,风力发电对电力系统可靠性有一定影响。为全面评价风力发电并网后的经济性和可靠性,提出了基于序贯蒙特卡罗仿真的风力发电机组可靠性模型,并给出了详细算法,考虑了风能的随机特性和风力发电机组的强迫停运。采用该模型对风力发电机组进行概率仿真,并结合时序负荷模型,计算出不同设计方案下系统可靠性指标和经济指标。The wind energy always affects the reliability of power system for its randomness and fluctuation. A reliability model of wind unit based on sequential Monte-Carlo simulation is presented to evaluate the economy and reliability of wind power generation,which considers the randomness characteristic of wind energy and the forced outage of wind units. Its algorithm is detailed as well. The proposed model is applied to simulate wind power generation and calculate corresponding reliability indices and economic indices in different design schemes combined with chronological load model. This project is supported by the Key Project of Ministry of Education of China(03099).

关 键 词：风力发电 序贯蒙特卡罗仿真 可靠性模型 风电成本 

分 类 号：TM614[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]