防洪系统风险分析及其预报阈值研究  

Threshold value and risks analysis for flood control system

作　　者：曾玉红[1] 胡敏良[1] 梁在潮[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水利水电学院,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《武汉大学学报（工学版）》2003年第6期27-30,共4页Engineering Journal of Wuhan University

摘　　要：以长江干流中下游河段为研究对象,在运用一阶二次矩法(JC法)对河道行洪风险及水库泄洪风险进行计算的基础上,首次对防洪系统风险分析的预报阈值进行了研究,从而使风险分析的理论更加完善,在实际工程中的应用更广泛.Taking the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River as an object of study, and on the base of risks calculation, threshold values of river-channel releasing flood and reservoirs discharging flood are discussed for the first time. As one part of risk analysis, study of threshold value will make its using range more wide, and its theory more perfect.

关 键 词：防洪系统 风险 预报阈值 

分 类 号：TV877[水利工程—水利水电工程]