混合门限自回归模型在长期水文预报中的应用  

Application of TARSO Model in Long-range Forecasting

作　　者：李正最 吴雅琴 

机构地区：[1]湖南省湘潭水文水资源勘测大队,湘潭411100

出　　处：《江西水利科技》1993年第4期309-314,共6页Jiangxi Hydraulic Science & Technology

摘　　要：在长期水文预报中主要应用两类方法,它们是多元分析法和时间序列分析法,这两种方法各有其局限性;应用混合门限自回归模型模拟水文时间序列可以考虑诸多因素,能避免以上两方法的局限性,并在实践中得到检验.The multivarate analysis and the time series analysis are two kinds of fundamental methods of long-range hydrological forecasting, but they have inherent limitations themselves. In this paper, the TARSO model is used to simulate hydrologic time series. Because many factors can be considered, it overcomes some deficiencys of the multivarate analysis and the time series analysis. At last, an example is given.

关 键 词：自回归 门限 数学模型 水文预报 

分 类 号：P338[天文地球—水文科学]