应用Leslie矩阵对布氏田鼠种群数量的模拟分析  

Forecast population of Brandt's vole by using matrix model

作　　者：施大钊[1] 高灵旺[1] 任程[1] 宛新荣[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学,北京100094 [2]中国科学院动物研究所农业虫害鼠害综合治理研究国家重点实验室,北京100080

出　　处：《植物保护学报》2004年第3期305-310,共6页Journal of Plant Protection

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(30270881)

摘　　要：采用 Leslie 矩阵对内蒙古太仆寺旗草原的布氏田鼠作了种群动态模拟分析。结果表明:①该模型数值模拟的准确率达到87.7%。②矩阵特征值λ既表达了在调查时段种群达到稳定增长状态的周限增长率,又可作为衡量种群变动趋势的指标:当λ>1.232时布氏田鼠种群处于上升期,当λ趋于1.232时种群处于高峰期,当λ<1时种群处于下降期。③不同增长期的年龄结构与繁殖率的差异显著,在种群上升期,幼鼠比例明显高于高峰期和下降期。④在上升期,繁殖率为关键因子;在高峰期和下降期的关键因子是存活率。Using the Leslie matrix model,we simulated the population dynamics of Brandt′svole,Microtus brandti,in the steppe in Taipusi Qi,Inner Mongolia.The result showed that:①the simulation accuracy of this model was 87.7%;②the infinite increase rate λ was goodindicator of population trend;when λ>1,the population will increase;when λ→1,the popu-lation will approach the peak phase,and when λ<1,the population will decrease;③the agestructure differed greatly among different population phases;in the increase phase,there washigher proportion of young voles;④the sensitivity analysis showed that reproduction was thekey factor in the increase phase;in decline and peak phases,survival rat was the key factor.

关 键 词：Leslie矩阵 布氏田鼠 种群数量 模拟分析 

分 类 号：S443[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]