灰色预测理论在工程标底中的应用  

The application of gray prediction in engineering bidding price

作　　者：谢媛芳[1] 申伟[2] 

机构地区：[1]长安大学建筑工程学院,陕西西安710061 [2]长安大学陕西西建建筑工程总承包公司,陕西西安710061

出　　处：《西安科技大学学报》2004年第3期297-300,共4页Journal of Xi’an University of Science and Technology

摘　　要：在分析工程标底预测方法的基础上,应用灰色系统理论,招标前,以近期同类工程的单方成本为依据,经过累加生成时间序列,用微分拟合建立灰色预测动态模型。并用单段函数残差辨识方法,建立了残差辨识模型,进一步提高了模型精度。从而建立了单方成本的灰色预测模型。并通过工程实例,阐述了工程标底灰色预测的操作程序,论证了该方法的实用性。为招标单位快速、准确确定工程标底,业主选择承包单位提供了重要的参考依据。In analysing prediction methods of engineering bidding price, apply the gray system theories, before bidding, regard unit cost of historical similar engineering as the basis, through accumulated generating operation, the gray prediction dynamic model is established with the differential calculus. To improve the accuracy of prediction, the deficient tolerance model is established. So, the gray prediction model of engineering bidding price is founded. The process of engineering bidding price prcdiction by enginccring example is elaborated. It provides an important reference for bidding unit to determinc engineering bidding price rapidly and accurately, for owner to select contractor.

关 键 词：灰色预测 工程标底 微分拟合 残差辨识 

分 类 号：TU18[建筑科学—建筑理论] N941.5[自然科学总论—系统科学]