铁路货运量组合预测模型的研究  

The Study of Comprehensive Forecast Model for Railway Freight Transport Volume

作　　者：郝佳[1] 李澜[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学交通运输学院,北京100044

出　　处：《铁道运输与经济》2004年第11期73-75,共3页Railway Transport and Economy

摘　　要：铁路货运量预测作为铁路运输生产的基础工作之一,是铁路运输企业制定正确市场营销战略的前提条件。传统的预测方法已经不能适应日益复杂的运量预测需要,因此借鉴国内各种运输方式的运量预测方法,并与铁路的特点相结合,提出适应我国铁路情况的多种预测方法相结合的组合预测模型体系和方法,并通过实例计算,得出2003年—2005年铁路货运量的预测结果。The forecast of railway freight volume is one of fundamental work forrailway transportation production and the precondition for working out the suitablerailway transportation market strategy. However the traditional forecasting methodcan no longer accommodate the more and more complicated demand of thefreight volume forecasting. Referring to the forecast measures of freight volumeapplied in various domestic transportation means and combining with railwayfeatures, the paper brings forward the comprehensive model system and measurewhich is an integration of many forecasting methods and adapts to China railwayfreight volume forecasting. Put into practical application of calculation, it obtainsthe railway freight forecasting result from year 2003 to year 2005.

关 键 词：铁路货运量 铁路运输生产 铁路运输企业 市场营销战略 运量预测 组合预测模型 基础工作 实例计算 运输方式 预测方法 

分 类 号：F532[经济管理—产业经济] F50