工业产出波动中需求和供给冲击的影响机制分析  

The Impact of Demand and Supply Shocks on the Fluctuation of Industrial Output

作　　者：刘金全[1] 郭明星[1] 陈广华[1] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学数量经济研究中心,130012

出　　处：《世界经济》2004年第11期55-61,共7页The Journal of World Economy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目 (0 3 BJY10 2 );教育部重大项目 (0 2 JAZJD790 0 0 7)的资助

摘　　要：工业产值的波动受供给冲击和需求冲击的双重影响。供给冲击主要来源于技术创新和生产成本的变动 ,而需求冲击则主要来源于需求的变化。工业产值的波动和调整同时也依赖经济周期的阶段性。通过检验发现 ,工业产出波动对于生产率冲击和需求冲击的反应比较明显 ,生产率冲击是诱导工业产出波动的主要原因 ,劳动力市场波动对工业产出影响比较微弱 ,因此提高工业产出的供给效率和降低买方市场程度是中国工业产出实现快速增长的主要途径。Fluctuations in industrial output are influenced by supply shocks and demand shocks. Supply shocks are caused by technological innovations and cha nges of production costs. Demand shocks are originated by price changes and mark et aggregate demands. Volatilities of industrial output also depend on the busin ess cycle. By testing with VAR models, the fluctuations of industrial output are sensitive to technological shocks and demand shocks. Technological shocks are t he main force driving its volatility. Fluctuations in labor market have weak imp acts on industrial output. Therefore, improvements in production efficiency and demand augments are important to keep rapid growth of industry output. $$$$

关 键 词：工业产值 VAR模型 工业产出 供给冲击 需求冲击 技术创新 

分 类 号：F424[经济管理—产业经济]