祁连山中东段强震复发概率模型及未来强震地点预测  

PROBABILITY MODEL OF STRONG EARTHQUAKE RECURRENCE AND PREDICTION FOR FUTURE EARTHQUAKE SITE IN MIDDLE-EASTERN SEGMENT OF QILIAN MT.

作　　者：郑文俊[1] 袁道阳[1] 何文贵[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局地震预测研究所兰州科技创新基地

出　　处：《西北地震学报》2004年第3期228-233,254,共7页Northwestern Seismological Journal

基　　金：中国地震局地震科学联合基金项目(102055;604018;104073)共同资助;中国地震局地震预测研究所兰州基地论著编号:LC200400069.

摘　　要：本文主要从祁连山中东段主要活动断裂带全新世以来古地震活动以及历史地震和现代地震的复发间隔入手,通过对强震复发间隔与平均复发间隔的比值(T/Ta)的数学处理,建立了区域强震复发所遵循的概率模型,并对未来强震的复发可能性和强震发生地点进行预测。结果表明,本地区未来最有可能的强震发生地点是老虎山—毛毛山断裂带的毛毛山—金强河段。In this paper, starting with palaeoearthquakes and historic and recent earthquakes recurrence intervals for main active fault zones in middle-eastern segment of Qilian Mt. since Holocene, by calculating the ratios of recurrence interval of strong earthquake to that of average(T/T_a), the strong earthquake recurrence probability model is established, and the model has applied to predict possibility and sites of strong earthquake. It reveals that, in this rigion the possible site where strong earthquake maybe occurs in future is on Maomaoshan-Jinqiang segment of Laohushan-Maomaoshan Fault.

关 键 词：祁连山中东段 强震 复发概率 发震地点 T/Ta值 

分 类 号：P315.2[天文地球—地震学]