影响我国卷烟需求的因素分析  

Factor analysis on demand for cigarettes in China

作　　者：毛正中[1] 蒋家林[1] 龚志平[1] 张平[1] 阎正民[1] 苏维[1] 

机构地区：[1]华西医科大学,610041

出　　处：《中国卫生资源》1998年第4期154-156,共3页Chinese Health Resources

摘　　要：吸烟是一个严重的公共卫生问题，而控制吸烟是一项重要的公共卫生政策。利用经济手段控制吸烟是目前广泛采用的三大控制手段之一，该文分别利用我国城镇和农村13年的时间序列资料，采用岭回归方法，克服了资料的多重共线性，从而估计出了我国城、乡卷烟需求的价格弹性和收入弹性，表明了卷烟的一般消费品特征和吸烟的理性嗜好特征，并初步探讨了需求的变化趋势，为制定强有力的卫生经济政策提供了依据。Smoking has been a serious public health issue, and tobacco control has become an important public health policy.Economic means is one of the three most effective methods of tobacco control. This paper provides a time-series model for cigarettes in China by means of ridge regression, and estimates its price elasticity and income elasticity. It show that cigarette is one of the general consumption goods, and smoking is a rational addiction. It also describes a trend of demand for cigarettes. These provide policy makers with a basis for making decision of smoking control by economic means.

关 键 词：吸烟 公共卫生问题 严重 因素分析 卫生经济政策 公共卫生政策 影响 需求 中国 收入弹性 

分 类 号：R197[医药卫生—卫生事业管理] R163[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]