基于多重不确定性因素的施工导流风险分析  

Risk Analysis for Construction Diversion Based on Multi-uncertainty

作　　者：徐森泉[1] 胡志根[1] 刘全[1] 蒲建平[2] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430072 [2]国家电力公司成都勘测设计研究院,四川成都610072

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2004年第4期78-81,共4页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50079017)。

摘　　要：通过分析施工洪水过程中的洪峰流量、洪量和历时的不确定性,以及导流建筑物的水力参数的不确定性,确定施工洪水过程和导流建筑物泄流能力的模拟计算模型。运用Monte-Carlo方法模拟计算施工导流系统度汛各时段的状态参数,得到上游围堰堰前水位的分布函数,在此基础上确定导流系统的风险。通过实例验证比较说明,该研究方法和计算模型是可靠的、适用的。Based on analying uncertainties of construction diversion system,this paper presents the simulation model of construction flood and discharge capacity of diversion structure,and the model includes uncertainties such as peak flow,flood volumes,flood duration and hydraulic parameters of discharge construction. The Monte-Carlo method is applied to simulate the variables of the construction diversion system. As a result,a random distribution function of the upstream water level is obtained,then the risk of the diversion system is determined. A case study shows that the analytical method and computational model are reliable and reasonable.

关 键 词：施工导流 风险分析 MONTE-CARLO方法 

分 类 号：TV551[水利工程—水利水电工程]