玉米矮花叶病预测预报研究  

Forecast Methods of Maize Dwarf Mosaic

作　　者：王海光[1] 马占鸿[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学植物病理学系,北京100094

出　　处：《玉米科学》2004年第4期94-98,共5页Journal of Maize Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(30070490);国家"十五"攻关项目(2001BA509B)

摘　　要：摘要:为了较准确地预测玉米矮花叶病发生流行情况,对该病进行有效控制,根据历史资料和实际调查数据,应用生长模型预测法、马尔科夫链预测法和回归模型预测法对该病进行了预测预报研究,初步建立了玉米矮花叶病流行预测体系。生长模型预测法可对生长到一定阶段后的春玉米进行玉米矮花叶病短中期预测,对夏玉米出苗后即可进行短中期预测。马尔科夫链预测法可对发生程度作概率预测,可作为玉米矮花叶病长期发生趋势预测预报的一个参考。应用回归模型预测法可进行中期预测,预测一个生长季的最终病情。Adopting growth model forecasting method, Markov chains forecasting method and regression model forecasting method, research on forecast for maize dwarf mosaic (MDM) was conducted based on historical materials about this disease and our investigation data in order to predict its epidemic and control this disease efficiently. Forecasting system of MDM was built primarily. Growth model forecasting method could be used to make short-term and medium-term forecasting for MDM of spring corn after having grown to certain phase and to make short-term and medium-term forecasting for MDM of summer corn. Markov chains forecasting method could make probability prediction of MDM and could be a reference to long-term developing trend forecasting of this disease. Regression forecasting model could be used to make medium-term forecasting for MDM.

关 键 词：玉米矮花叶病 预测预报 生长模型预测法 回归模型预测法 马尔科夫链预测法 

分 类 号：S435.131[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]