漳河水库入库洪水抗误差预报方案研究  

Researching of Anti-error Forecasting Project of Zhanghe Reservoir Flood

作　　者：雒文生[1] 易赛莉[1] 俞淞[1] 李莉红[1] 张青[1] 宋星原[1] 

机构地区：[1]水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室武汉大学,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2004年第12期47-50,共4页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大项目 (50 0 9962 2 - 1 )

摘　　要：漳河水库由观音寺水库和鸡公尖水库通过半天然明槽相互连通组成 ,因受库水位观测、明槽输水计算、动库容计算误差等的复杂影响 ,以往多次建立的洪水预报方案均未达到可供应用的水平。在分析漳河水库入库洪水误差产生特点的基础上 ,通过建立抗误差产汇流预报模型和自适应实时校正技术 ,使漳河水库洪水预报方案平均确定性系数达91.0 9% ,洪峰合格率达 10 0 % ,峰现时间合格率达 90 .91% ;观音寺水库洪水预报方案的平均确定性系数达 90 .63 % ,洪峰合格率达 10 0 % ,峰现时间合格率达 10 0 % ,终于建立了达到甲等水平的漳河水库洪水预报应用方案。Zhanghe reservoir is composed by Guanyinsi reservoir and Jigongjian reservoir through semi-natural open channel.Because of the complicated influence of observation error of reservoir level,transmiting water by open channel and calculation error of backwater storage,many flood forecasting projects established in the past did not come to applied level.This text is based on analyzing characteristics of error generation of Zhanghe reservoir flood,establishing anti-error runoff yield and concentration forecasting model and self-adaption technique.It makes the average deterministic coefficient of Zhanghe reservoir flood forecasting project come to 91.09%,the qualified rate of flood peak 100%,the qualified rate of time to peak 90.91%.While the average deterministic coefficient of Guanyinsi reservoir flood forecasting project comes to 90.63%,the qualified rate of flood peak 100%,the qualified rate of time to peak 100%,which establishing Zhanghe reservoir flood forecasting project as applied that attains first-rate finally.

关 键 词：漳河水库 入库洪水 洪水预报 实时校正 

分 类 号：TV124[水利工程—水文学及水资源]