复合因素在黑龙江省粮食产量预报中的应用  

Studies on the Forecast of Crop Yield with Compound Factors in Heilongjiang Province

作　　者：矫江[1] 王俊河[1] 高耀辉 任鹏[1] 

机构地区：[1]黑龙江省农业科学院,哈尔滨150086

出　　处：《气象》1993年第5期50-52,共3页Meteorological Monthly

摘　　要：将代表站气象要素累加复合成可以反映黑龙江省主要气象灾害的热量指标、旱涝指标等复合因素,并以此为因子预报全省粮食总产量。经大丰收的1990年和大水灾的1991年粮食总产量预报检验,效果较好,两年平均误差为2.62％。The meteorological data are accumulated and compounded to 'heat index, drought index and water-logging index ', which can represent the calastrophic meteorology in Heilongjiang Province. In this case,the effects of the chilly injury,drought and water-logging damage are considered for the crop yield forecast. The indices can be used to eliminate the average error calculated from the multi-point meteorological data and increase the efficiency of the meteorological data. The test in 1990 (a pumper year)and 1991 (a heavy water-logging year)show 2. 62%. In July and August 1991,an error at a rate of the crop yield was predicted two and three morths ahead respectively, the average accuracy was above 95%.

关 键 词：复合因素 热量指标 产量 预报 粮食 

分 类 号：S162.8[农业科学—农业气象学]