长期大气折射指数预报研究  

ASTUDY ON THE LONG-TERM ATMOSPHERIC REFRACTION INDEX FORECAST

作　　者：詹煜[1] 戴铁丕[1] 张培昌[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京气象学院

出　　处：《气象科学》1993年第4期427-431,共5页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

摘　　要：本文对近地面大气折射指数气候变化统计预报进行了研究,建立了逐步回归多重分析时变模式。在模式中考虑了大气折射指数肘间序列的振动周期、前期预报因子(降水量),还特别考虑了时间序列的振动位相,并随着新数据的到来,适时地改变预报因子和预报方程的参数。本文用该模式对上海近地面6月上旬旬平均大气折射指数进行了长期预报试验,结果表明预报误差较小,预报效果稳定,具有较好的实用价值。这方面的工作可用来对无线电波的传播环境进行预测,从而对电子工程系统进行适时的调整控制。除此而外,该预报模式也可以应用于其它的预报领域。Based on the nature that atmospheric refraction index time series is a kind of non-stationary series, a time-variat model for step-wise regression multi-analysis about the long-term forecast is proposed in this paper. The advantage of the model is that information in historical data and other forecasting factors data can all be used. The model is consisted of autoregression terms, multiple rearession terms, periodic terms, especially cscillation phase terms. By considering periodic oscillation phase,the physical meaning of the model is more clear. The actual experiment show that the forecasting effect of the N unit of the surface atmospheric refraction index is satisfactory. The model also can be used in other research areas.

关 键 词：大气 折射指数 气候变化 统计预报 

分 类 号：P457.4[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]