柑桔溃疡病发生测报模型的建立  

Establishment of the Forecast Mathematical Model of Citrus Bacterial Canker Disease

作　　者：杨秀娟[1] 陈福如[1] 阮宏椿[1] 谢世勇[1] 郑红铭[1] 卢同[1] 

机构地区：[1]福建省农科院植物保护研究所,福建福州350013

出　　处：《江西农业大学学报》2004年第6期881-884,共4页Acta Agriculturae Universitatis Jiangxiensis

基　　金：福建省自然科学基金资助项目(B0110031)

摘　　要：2001～2003年从田间系统调查了柑桔溃疡病发生、流行规律。采用DPS数据处理系统方法,建立了柑桔溃疡病发生流行测报模型,Yn=-33.832+1.193X1n+2.259X2n+0.008X3n,RY=0.959 。研究结果表明,病害发生流行与柑桔的物候期及雨量、雨日、温度的气候因素关系密切。其中,病害发生的严重度与雨量、雨日呈显著性相关,相关系数分别为R1=0.916 和R2=0.868 ,该测报模型能较准确地预测中短期柑桔溃疡病发生、流行程度。Field occurrence and epidemic regularity of Citrus Bacterial Canker Disease(CBCD) was investigated from 2001 to 2003. Based on the data of investigation, the forecast mathematical model of CBCD is, Y _n = -33.832+ 1.193 X _(1n) + 2.259 X _(2n) + 0.008 X_(3n) ( R_Y =0.959~*), which established by using the method of DPS data processing system . Disease occurrence is closely related to precipitation and rain days ,and their related coefficient were R_1= 0.916~* and R_2=0.868~* respectively. The findings showed that field occurrence and epidemic regularity of CBCD in middle-short period could be forecasted by using the forecast mathematical model of CBCD.

关 键 词：柑桔溃疡病 气候因素 测报模型 

分 类 号：S436.67[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]