湖南南部两水电站水情长期预报方法  

Long-term water regime prediction for two hydropower stations in the southern part of Hunan Province

作　　者：郑金陵[1] 曲延光[2] 林镜榆[3] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学计算机及信息工程学院,江苏南京210098 [2]吉林省水文水资源局,吉林长春130022 [3]河海大学水资源环境学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水利水电科技进展》2004年第6期31-33,共3页Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources

摘　　要：介绍了建立水电站水情长期数值预报的思路和方法,应用该方法并根据气候特点对湖南南部的欧阳海水电站和双牌水电站作了水情的长期预报.从年平均流量、4～6月总流量及7～9月总流量这3个主要项目来看,欧阳海水电站的预报效果较好,双牌水电站的年平均流量和4～6月总流量预报效果也较好,而7～9月的预报效果差.另外,研究发现,这两个水电站的水情有着密切的关系,这一关系在预报中可以用来参照验证.An introduction was given to the train of thought and method for establishment of along-term water regime prediction for hydropower stations based on the step-regression method. By optimal screening of the factors selected, the error of prediction was reduced to a minimum. According to the climate characteristics, the method was applied to the long-term water regime prediction for the Ouyanghai hydropower station and the Shuangpai hydropower station in the southern part of Hunan Province. The results of prediction of annual mean flow rate and the total flow rate for the periods from April to June and from July to September of each year are satisfactory at the Ouyanghai hydropower station; while for the Shuangpai hydropower station, the results of prediction are also good for annual mean flow rate and the total flow rate for the period from April to June, but it is unsatisfactory for the period from July to September. It is also shown that there is a close relationship between the water regimes of the two hydropower stations, which can be used as a reference in water regime prediction.

关 键 词：水文长期预报 水电站水情预报 欧阳海水电站 双牌水电站 

分 类 号：P338[天文地球—水文科学]