2003年云南大姚6.2级地震预测及其科学依据  

Forecast of the Dayao,Yunnan,M6.2 Earthquake in 2003 and Its Scientific Evidences

作　　者：石绍先[1] 

机构地区：[1]云南省地震局,昆明650041

出　　处：《地震研究》2005年第1期1-5,共5页Journal of Seismological Research

基　　金：国家"十五"科技攻关项目(2001BA601B01-02-04)资助.

摘　　要：通过对2003年7月21日云南大姚62级地震前,2001年10月至2003年6月云南出现的613d无M≥50地震的罕见平静、2003年2～6月出现的显著能量预释放过程、2002年9月至2003年6月M≥40地震深度分布异常、2003年5～6月水汞群体异常及2002年2月至2003年6月形成的强震孕震区的深入分析和研究,给出了云南大姚62级地震三要素预测的具体方法和实际预测过程。探讨这一强震前的认识过程对于未来地震预测有一定的参考价值。Through the study on some anomalies before the Dayao M6.2 earthquake on July 21 of 2003, such as the 613 days of quiescence without M≥5.0 shocks from October of 2001 to June of 2003, significant energy prerelease process in February-June of 2003, depth distribution anomaly of M≥4.0 earthquakes from September of 2002 to June of 2003, group anomaly of mercury in water in May-June of 2003 and the forming of the seismogenic area of strong earthquake from February of 2002 to June of 2003, the dynamic evaluation processes on time, location and magnitude of the earthquake have been revealed. Meanwhile, the concrete technique and actual forecast process of the three elements of the Dayao M6.2 earthquake is presented. Exploring the understanding process before the strong earthquake has reference to the future earthquake forecast.

关 键 词：大姚地震 短期地震预报 前兆群体异常 地震三要素 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]