混沌相空间相似模型在中长期水文预报中的应用  

Application of similarity model of chaos phase space in hydrologic medium and long-term prediction

作　　者：张利平[1] 王德智[1] 夏军[1] 牛存稳[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《水力发电》2004年第11期5-7,11,共4页Water Power

基　　金：中国科学院知识创新工程项目(KZCX2-SW-317)国家自然科学基金(50379040)

摘　　要：基于相空间重构技术,建立了局域单点相似模型、局域多点相似模型、局域线性相似模型和三参数模型4种相空间模型。白山水库月径流量和主汛期径流量的模拟预报应用实例表明,相空间局域模型对揭示水文动力系统复杂的非线性结构很有效,该模型对径流过程的中长期预测是可行的,并有较好的预测精度和应用价值,对提高现行洪水预测精度有一定意义。According to the theory of chaotic phase space, we established the single-point model,multi-point model,lineal model, three-parameter model of local similarity model. The philosophy and algorithm of four kinds of model of chaotic phase space are also introduced, then its applicable for hydrology is discussed. It is reasonable and superior to use this model in medium-and-long-term hydrologic prediction. At last the application of the model in the long term runoff prediction of Baishan reservoir is shown, the result of calculation shows that the models are highly effective and is worthy of popularization and application.

关 键 词：混沌相空间 相似模型 中长期水文预报 

分 类 号：P338.9[天文地球—水文科学]