干旱区生态环境对PRED系统影响的定量研究——以新疆和田民丰县为例  

QUANTITATIVE STUDY OF EFFECTS OF ECO-ENVIRONMENT IN ARID LAND ON PRED SYSTEM ——Take Minfeng County in Xinjiang for Example

作　　者：熊黑钢[1] 周哲[1] 马晓钰[1] 韩茜[1] 

机构地区：[1]新疆大学资源与环境科学学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830046

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2004年第6期21-26,共6页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(40161009);国家重大基础研究发展规划(G1999043508)资助项目。

摘　　要：从可持续度模型的特点出发,分析影响干旱区可持续发展的重要因子,对原先较适用于工业发达,环境污染严重的大中型城市的区域PRED系统模式进行了改进。针对西部干旱区特殊的地理环境和经济结构,将水资源总量和生态环境因子引入可持续度模型。结合干旱区的实际情况和已有模型,选用人口增长、经济发展、发展阶段、水资源总量和生态环境这五大因子建立新的模型。将其应用于新疆和田民丰县,根据其波动规律将民丰县可持续发展变化分为五个阶段。Based on the characteristics of sustainable development model, we analyze the main factors affecting arid land sustainable development,and improve the old P-R-E-D model, which only suits developed large and medium sized dcities with severe environment pollution. Aiming the special geographical environment and economic structure in the west arid area, total amount of water resources factor and ecological environment factor are introduced to the sustainable development model.Combining the actual conditions with the old model, we chose population growth, economic development, development stage, total amount of water resources and ecological environment five factors the: Applying the new model into the Minfeng County, according to its fluctuation, we divide the changes of sustainable development in the county into five phases.

关 键 词：民丰县 经济发展 可持续发展 PRED系统 新疆 波动规律 生态环境 西部干旱区 环境污染 因子 

分 类 号：N941[自然科学总论—系统科学] F592.7[经济管理—旅游管理]