近代非线性回归在电力系统负荷短期预测中的应用  

The Application of Nonlinear Regression Analysis in Short-Term Forecasting Charge of Power System

作　　者：柳金甫[1] 王贵保[2] 任富春 

机构地区：[1]河北大学,保定071002 [2]华北电力学院,保定071003

出　　处：《数理统计与管理》1993年第4期29-31,共3页Journal of Applied Statistics and Management

摘　　要：本文就河北省１９８５—１９９０年春节期间每小时用电量的统计数字用非线性回归模型（Ｇｏｍｐｅｒｔｄｚ）处理了６年中同日同一时间的耗电量，建立了回归模型，并预测了１９９１年同一时间的用电情况。实际表明本文的结果是可信的．This paper shows statistic figures(lots of dotting curvs)of the quantity of the consumed electric energy hour by hour during 6 days of the Spring Festival in the year from 1985 to 1990 in Hebei Province. The paper simulats the quantity of the consumed ellectric energy at the same hour same date in six years by Nonlinear Reoression Modeling method (Gompertdz mo- del ). The paper constructs the regression model and gives the foresee at hte same hour in 1991. The testing shows that the results of this paper are satisfied.

关 键 词：非线性回归 预测 电力系统 负荷 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]